Course overview

There is an ongoing paradigm shift in evaluation of forensic evidence away from methods based on human perception and subjective judgement to methods based on relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models; methods that are transparent and reproducible, use the logically correct framework for interpretation of forensic evidence (the likelihood-ratio framework), are resistant to cognitive bias, and are calibrated and validated under casework conditions. The paradigm shift is spreading across different branches of forensic science, and there is a need for more forensic practitioners and lawyers to have a working knowledge of the concepts of forensic inference and statistics. This continuing-professional-development (CPD) module will provide you with a conceptual understanding of forensic inference and statistics, including an understanding of the likelihood-ratio framework for interpretation of forensic evidence. The focus of the module is on understanding of concepts rather than practical implementation skills. No prior knowledge of statistics is assumed.

Module Learning Outcomes:

On successful completion of this module, you will:

Understand how to perform source-level forensic evaluation via quantitative implementation of the likelihood-ratio framework.
Understand how to empirically calibrate and validate forensic-evaluation systems.
Understand what cognitive bias is and be familiar with strategies for reducing its potential impact.
Be familiar with the requirements and recommendations of standards and guidelines related to evaluation of forensic evidence, and with legal admissibility of forensic evidence.

Module Content:

Logical reasoning for evaluation of forensic evidence
Concepts of statistical modelling for evaluation of forensic evidence
Empirical calibration and validation of forensic-evaluation systems
Cognitive bias in evaluation of forensic evidence
Standards and guidelines related to evaluation of forensic evidence
Legal admissibility of forensic evidence from a scientific perspective
Examples from multiple branches of forensic science

Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences Approved

This CPD course is approved by the Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences and counts for 150 points in their CPD Scheme.

Testimonials from previous students

“I have absolutely hated anything mathy my entire life, but this module has introduced things so steadily and sequentially (and with instant feedback and consolidation from the didactic quizzes), that I not only feel capable but have enjoyed the module.”

“The organisation of materials, the repetition, and the class discussion format are great. The instructor is patient and thorough. I cannot express strongly enough that this is the best-taught class I have ever taken.”

“The lectures are always engaging and are explained well and in-depth. The pace of the lectures make it easier to keep up with the lecturer. The quizzes within the lecture slides have been a great way to make sure I have an understanding of the lecture content so far.”

“This course is unique in the concepts it teaches. I love that Dr Morrison has realised the need of this type of statistical understanding across the majority of forensic disciplines and is forging ahead to promote the paradigm shift. This course has had a positive influence on me as a forensic practitioner. All forensic practitioners should undertake a course like this one.”

“This is an incredible course. The content is fascinating and incredibly well delivered. The learning goals are clear and every opportunity is provided to achieve those goals. The course is well structured and the delivery is both engaging and challenging. You should not be afraid of the maths. Everything is so well presented and introduced sequentially that it is easy to understand as long as you complete every unit on time and build on what you have already learned. I really can’t compliment this course enough.”

“The instructor’s academic support is amazing – always willing to explain and help.”

“I consider myself very lucky to have been taught by such a knowledgeable and passionate teacher. This course was fantastic. Geoffrey’s enthusiasm for the subject is infectious and his teaching methods are phenomenal. I found him to be very open and receptive to questions and very good at explaining concepts.”

How you will learn

The module is delivered entirely online. Learning resources are provided via the Blackboard Ultra virtual learning environment, and via the University’s library. You can take the module from anywhere in the world as long as you have a good internet connection. The module includes regular interactive seminars and tutorials. As necessary, seminars and tutorials will be scheduled to accommodate participants in different time zones, e.g., early morning and/or evening UK time.

The module consists of nine units of learning and two assessments of competency.

A flipped-classroom active-learning approach is adopted whereby transfer of information primarily takes place via pre-recorded lectures, other videos, and readings before class, and class time is used for interactive activities aimed at developing analytical skills and deeper understanding.

Each unit is delivered over a two-week period. For each unit, you will be provided with pre-class watching and reading and with questions and/or activities to guide your watching and reading. Each unit includes a two-hour-long seminar (in the first week) and a one-hour-long tutorial (in the second week). Seminars consist of small-group and whole-class interactive activities based on the pre-class watching and reading. During tutorials, the instructor responds to questions posed by participants.

After each seminar, you will also be provided with an online didactic quiz. An online didactic quiz presents 10 questions randomly selected from a much larger question bank, and provides immediate feedback on your answers. Each quiz can be repeated multiple times. A different set of questions will be presented each time.

Learning is cumulative and cyclical, with later parts of the module drawing on concepts covered in earlier parts of the module.

Assessment

Assessment is via two online tests that have the same format as each unit’s online didactic quiz. This is designed to encourage you to exploit the learning opportunities provided by the didactic quizzes, and in turn to exploit the learning opportunities provided by the pre-class watching and reading questions and by the in-class activities. The first test occurs in the middle of the module. The questions in the first test will assess your knowledge and understanding of the material covered in the first half of the module. The second test occurs at the end of the module. The questions in the second test will assess your knowledge and understanding of the material covered in the whole module, with a greater proportion of questions focusing on the second half of the module.

The tests are designed to assess competency. In order to demonstrate competency (and be awarded a pass), a you must achieve a raw score of 80% or more by correctly answering 80 or more of the 100 questions spread across the two tests. If you do not demonstrate competency on your first attempt, you will be able to engage in additional study (and can receive support from the instructor), and will be able to reattempt one or both of the tests. If you achieve a raw score of 80% or more on the second attempt, you will be awarded a pass. What matters is that you achieve and demonstrate a sufficient level of competency, not how long it takes you to do so.

Key information

Credit value: 15 credits (7.5 ECTS credits)

Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences CPD points: 150

Specific level: Master's

Mode of delivery: Online learning

Course type: Standalone module

Applications: All applications are made online using our online application form.

Provisional delivery dates

Access to online learning resources from 1 September 2026, or after your enrolment is complete, whichever is latest. Interactive seminars, interactive tutorials, and assessment occur 22 September 2026 - 8 December 2026 and 19 January 2027 - 23 March 2027.

Application deadline: 31 August 2026

We recommend that you apply substantially before the deadline so that you can complete enrolment before 1 September and have access to Blackboard from 1 September.

Duration and time commitment: Delivery of the module occurs during 20 weeks spread over a period of approximately 6 months. The expected study time required is the equivalent of approximately one day per week (150 hours total). Your access to all learning resources will last for 12 months. If necessary, this allows for completion of assessment of competency to occur after the first 6 months.

Meet your module director

Geoffrey Stewart Morrison
Module Director, Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics

The module is prepared and delivered by Prof Geoffrey Stewart Morrison. Prof Morrison is a forensic practitioner and a leading researcher in the field of forensic inference and statistics. Prof Morrison is Director of Aston University’s Forensic Data Science Laboratory, and is an Associate Editor for Science & Justice. 2019-2025 he was Chair of the British Standards Institutions’ Forensic Science Committee, and was an influential contributor to the development of ISO 21043 Forensic Sciences, particularly Part 4 Interpretation.

Get in touch

Entry requirements

You will need:

Undergraduate degree – pass

The module is organized to facilitate participation by individuals who already work in forensic science or law, but this is not a requirement.

International students should be outside the UK or already in the UK with a valid visa.

We are not able to accept applications from international students who wish to come to the UK solely to take this course.

English Language requirements

The module is taught in English.

For applicants whose first language is not English, evidence of English-language proficiency is not required, but applicants should have sufficient English-language proficiency to understand readings and lectures, and to actively participate in discussions.

The online application form is a generic form covering all programmes at the university. Much of the information requested is not needed for applications for this CPD module, and, even if it is submitted, will not be used.

In order to minimize your work on the application process, please follow the advice below:

Initial
Register an account on the application portal and log in.

On the menu bar, select “My Applications” > “Submit Application”, or scroll down and select “Apply to Aston”.

Application Details
Complete: Course details (select Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics)

Complete: Aston graduate details

Skip: Agent details

Mark the section complete.

Qualifications
Add an undergraduate degree (or higher), including uploading a copy of your degree certificate or transcript.

Do not add any additional qualifications.

Complete: English language

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English Language Requirements
This section appears if you indicated that English was not your first language.

Do not upload any English language qualification documents.

Answer the questions.

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Work History
Skip all questions.

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Personal Statement
Skip this question (or enter "not applicable")

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Visa
Indicate that you do not require a visa.

International students must be outside the UK or already in the UK with a valid visa. We are not able to accept applications from international students who wish to come to the UK solely to take this CPD module.

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References
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Funding
Indicate source of finding.

Your answer will not affect admission.

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Submission
Review the application and submit.

After acceptance
The payment and enrolment processes are generic, covering all programmes at the university. Some of these processes are not relevant for this online CPD course, but have to be followed anyway.

After acceptance, you will receive instructions about how to pay. You will have to pay the full tuition fee before you can enrol. Payment by instalments is not an option for this module.

You will have to submit a copy of your payment receipt by e-mail. If more than 3 business days have passed but you have not received acknowledgment of receipt of payment and instructions on how to enrol, e-mail the instructor and he will pass on your e-mail to relevant admin staff.

If you receive an e-mail requesting that you supply information needed to apply for a student visa, ignore this e-mail.

You will be asked to submit a photograph of yourself. Please follow the instructions about the requirements for the photograph and submit the photograph. Even though you will not need access to University buildings and therefore will not need an identity card, you will not be able to complete enrolment until the photograph has been approved.

Finally, you will get a University computing account including a university e-mail account, access to online library resources, and access to online learning resources via Blackboard. You will have to set up two-factor authentication.

It may take up to 24 hours after you have completed enrolment before you have access to the LEM123CPD Blackboard course. If more than 24 hours have passed and you still do not have access, e-mail the instructor.

While you are a registered student with the University, use your University e-mail for all e-mail communications with University staff (including with the instructor for the module).

Log in to Blackboard and access the LEM123CPD course. Familiarize yourself with the content of the Blackboard course and with the LEM123CPD Handbook (which is posted on the Blackboard course). Complete the pre-seminar learning activities before the first seminar.

Fees

Course fees

UK and International students (2026/2027)

GBP, 2,200

Frequently asked questions

What are the differences between Aston’s “Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics” and Lausanne’s “Essentials of Forensic Interpretation”?

Some of the differences are:

“Concepts” offers more ECTS credits for less money.
“Concepts” includes weekly videoconferences where you get to interact with the instructor and with other participants.
“Concepts” has a greater focus on deriving probability values from relevant data, as opposed to subjective assignment of values.
“Concepts” has a focus on calibration and validation. These are included in Dr Morrison’s research foci.
“Concepts” does not cover Bayesian networks.
“Concepts” does not include a choice of specialized topics.

Can you schedule seminars and tutorials at a convenient time for people in my time zone?

Depending on who enrols and where they are, we plan to schedule seminars and tutorials early morning UK time and evening UK time.

This will provide an afternoon or evening option if you are in Asia or Australasia, and a morning or early afternoon option if you are in North America or South America.

If you are in Europe or Africa, you will potentially be able to choose between morning or evening options. If you live in Hawai’i or elsewhere in the central Pacific, it may not be possible to schedule the seminars and tutorials at a reasonable time.

Is “Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics” suitable for lawyers and judges?

Yes! Material from “Concepts” has previously been used in workshops for lawyers and in workshops for judges and those workshops have received favourable feedback.

Does “Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics” cover the statistical models used in probabilistic genotypic systems such as STRmix® or TrueAllele®?

“Concepts” includes one unit on interpretation of DNA profiles, including probabilistic genotyping, but it is at an introductory level. It includes coverage of gamma distributions because they relate to concepts that can be generalised beyond their application in probabilistic genotyping. “Concepts” would be a useful foundation if you want to later specialise in interpretation of DNA profiles, but it does not cover the more advanced statistical methods (including Monte Carlo fitting methods) that are used by STRmix® and by TrueAllele®.

Does “Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics” cover automatic approaches to forensic voice comparison?

“Concepts” includes a unit on forensic voice comparison, but it is at an introductory level and focuses on concepts that are generalisable to other branches of forensic science. It does cover, at a conceptual level, use of deep neural networks (DNNs) to extract DNN-embeddings (such as x-vectors) and calculation of likelihood ratios from DNN-embeddings.

The latter methods can be generalised for use in other branches of forensic science such as facial-image comparison, comparison of fired cartridge cases, and comparison of finger mark and fingerprint images. In the future, we hope to offer a course on forensic voice comparison, including practical application skills. “Concepts” would be a prerequisite course for the course in forensic inference and statistics.

Will I receive a certificate?

Yes.

After you have demonstrated competency, you will be awarded a “pass” for the module.

After official approval by the module and programme boards, you will be awarded Master’s level credits (15 UK credits / 7.5 ECTS credits), and will receive an Aston Credit Certificate.

We will also provide an explanatory letter explaining that passing the module was based on a competency assessment with a passing grade of 80%.

After official approval, you will also be able to request an official transcript which will show that you passed the module. At your request, a transcript can be sent directly to a third party.

If you are a member of the Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences (CSFS), you will be able to register your successful completion of the module and receive 150 points in CSFS’s CPD Scheme.