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There has been a 20% reduction in US imports of steel and a 10% reduction in US imports of aluminium products since tariffs were reimposed.
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The UK faces a £482 million annual cost from being squeezed between US and EU tariff escalation.
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The research shows that the UK’s own March 2026 Steel Strategy – a 50% above-quota tariff and 60% quota reduction from July – risks the same downstream damage from the recent US trade policy.
An analysis of the 2025 United States’ steel and aluminium tariffs by economists from Aston University reveals that preferential access to the American market is worth £482 million a year to the UK economy.
A policy paper from Aston Business School’s Centre for Business Prosperity has been carried out as the UK government implements its new Steel Strategy – which from July 2026 will impose a 50% above-quota tariff and cut safeguard quotas by 60% – and as British Steel’s future hangs in the balance.
It provides the first rigorous, product-level evidence on how the 2025 tariff escalation has affected UK exporters and quantifies for the first time the fragility of the UK’s position outside the EU’s trade policy framework, with direct implications for living standards.
The research also reveals that post-Brexit Britain remains more vulnerable to trade wars than EU member states like Germany, even with the same level of tariff protection.
Meanwhile, there has been a 20% reduction in US imports of steel and 10% reduction in US imports of aluminium products since tariffs were reimposed. The June escalation to 50% roughly doubled the initial impact.
American consumers are also seeing the impact of the tariffs, with around 70 to 80% of the tariff burden passed through to American consumers and firms, raising cost of living and production costs.
Professor Jun Du at Aston University said:
“British Steel is under effective government control. Global steel overcapacity – estimated at 600 million tonnes, driven largely by Chinese production – is intensifying. The EU has proposed doubling its own steel tariffs to 50%. And the UK is negotiating its Economic Prosperity Deal with the US, which will determine whether British exporters keep their preferential 25% tariff rate or face the full 50%.
“Our research shows the UK is being squeezed between American protectionism and the EU’s defensive response. Losing preferential access to the US market would cost the UK economy £482 million a year – and the government’s own new safeguard measures risk raising costs for the very manufacturers that represent Britain’s real competitive strength in steel-using sectors like aerospace and automotive.”
Associate professor of economics and co-author, Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, said: “This research is incredibly timely because it reveals the financial implications around steel tariffs.
“If we take the aerospace sector as an example, aircraft parts alone account for over 40% of UK steel and aluminium exports to both the US and EU. These high-value, contract-governed exports are adjusted through volumes, not prices – meaning lost orders, not cheaper products. The UK’s comparative advantage is in steel-using sectors, not steel production itself.”
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About Aston University
For over 130 years, Aston University has been making our world a better place through education, research and innovation. Our history is intertwined with the remarkable city of Birmingham, once the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and now the thriving base for an innovation ecosystem of global significance, which Aston is co-creating.
Our vision is to be a leading university for science, technology and enterprise, measured by the positive transformational impact we achieve for our people, students, businesses and the communities we serve.
Aston focuses on high-quality, exploitable research that has an impact on society through medical breakthroughs, advancements in engineering, policy and practice in government, and the strategies and performance of business.
The university offers a range of undergraduate and postgraduate degree programmes, as well as continuing professional development solutions.
Thanks to its focus on delivering excellent outcomes for students, Aston University's reputation continues to grow. It was recognised as the Daily Mail University of the Year for Student Success 2025, is second in England for social mobility (2023 HEPI Social Mobility Index), and is top 20 for graduate salaries (2024 Longitudinal Education Outcomes).
Aston University is now defining its place in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world.
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